I have officially stopped sending out my lay the draw football tips. The 30th September 2016 was the final tip and for those who are interested it was Bahia v Criciuma (Brazil) and it ended 2-0. So we ended on a winning lay the draw tip.
I will come back to add more analysis to this post but for now see the results below.
Total Tips: 690
Total Wins: 546 (79%)
Total Loses: 144 (21%)
I recommend laying the draw on all tips at maximum lay odds of 4. If we managed to lay every tip at odds of 4 then the data looks like:
Total Profit (for 1pt liability stakes): +28.54pts
*Note that the final profit is higher in the plot. This is because this plot uses results when the odds were 4 or lower and not limited to only 4.
So if you risked £100 per tip (i.e. £100 liability stakes) then you’d be in £2854 in profit overall. 2015 had an average win rate of 82% and was a lot more profitable than 2016, which had an average win rate of 77%. 2016 started very badly with January, February, and March all being losing month, with March in particular denting progress significantly as it was -6pts down.
However, things picked up and with 5 profitable months and one break even month for the following 6 months, putting 2016 into profit.
If we took the odds quoted at the time I sent the tips out things are not as rosy. 2015 was great with a 32.41pts profit, however in 2016 we ended up 2pts down, so a £100 liability stake would have ended with a -£200 loss in 2016. Overall though we are a very healthy +30.30pts when all tips are taken into account.
Average odds of the tips if taken at the time they were send out via email was 4.2, which is slightly higher than our target of 4.
Analyse all results for yourself
Can you make more profits?