There are a lot of not so honest people around when it comes to betting and tipping services. I am definitely not one of these people. This post is where I tell you exactly what Sportstrading.guru is, what it does, and what you will get if you sign up for a free or full subscription.
Who is behind Sportstrading.guru?
I am Neil Curtis, I own Sportstrading.guru and I am responsible for making the football selections, updating the website, updating all results spreadsheets, and sending out all emails to subscribers.
I have being involved with betting and/or sports trading for many years. I really love analysing data (i.e. results, odds etc.) and trying to find a way of predicting winning bets. While I know you cannot predict winners 100% of the time I always thought there must be a way of getting more winners than losers, or at least making more money then losing it.
Initially I thought I had a reliable trading solution where I would bet in-play, hence why the website is called sportstrading. However this did not work out, or at least I made some subtle changes and the site became what it is today. In late February 2015 I started keeping a detailed account of all selections and results and publishing the data on this website.
After a few months of positive results I decided to make it available to other people, hence the free and paid subscription options.
What kind of betting is it?
Each tip I give is the same, and that is to bet that a football game will not end in a draw. So it does not matter which team wins as long as one of them does. To do this you place a lay bet on the draw, which can be done through betting exchanges. I recommend Betfair and it is what I use.
What you need to do. You place your bet before kick off and then leave it. I recommend you do not follow the game in-play because this can make you worry and stress about the outcome. The idea is to place your bet and then forget about it. Some will lose and some will win, but ultimately this does not matter as long as there are profits in the long run.
I say place a bet and forget because sometimes there are last minute goals, sometimes there are sending offs, sometimes there are missed penalties and if you follow along with each game you can start to feel lucky or unlucky. Unexpected things happen in football but they tend to even out in the long run, so for us we just let these things happen and we are happy for them to happen as long as we see profits.
How do I find football matches to bet on?
I look at the odds across different betting websites and this helps me find a match (or sometimes 2 or 3 matches) each day. There are a few other filtering criteria but essentially it is all to do with the odds.
Why I do this is because I put faith in the teams behind these major betting companies. I assume (rightly or wrongly) that these massive organisations have the best minds working out their odds, so I just tap into their hard work. So what this means is that the whole football fixture world is open to me as long as the games are featured on these betting websites.
One issue is that midweek there are sometimes only a few football matches to choose from and these are normally from lower leagues in countries that you would not always associate with a strong football culture. These games tend to have lower amounts of money in the betting market which is not ideal. However, I try and make at least one tip per day so this means I recommend games from less fashionable leagues and even friendlies from time to time.
In an ideal world I’d stick to tips from the major footballing leagues around the world but this is not possible unless I only make tips on weekends, which would mean only 2 or 3 tips per week. This would not be enough to make any decent profits so I instead try and pick at least 1 game if not more per day.
What kinds of stakes and profits can you expect?
As with all betting there will be wins and there will be losses. The goal is to have more profits in the long run which is why it is vital that you adopt the right mentality when following these tips. There may be times when you have 5 losing bets out of 7 and feel like the tips are rubbish. But then you will get a run of 5, 6, or as happened in November 2015, 22 wins in a row.
The key is how the long term profit trend looks, and for sportstrading.guru it looks like this:
*This is a live plot generated automatically from our current betting results.
We are aiming for 4 wins for every 1 loss, or an 80% win rate. If we get this then we will make some profit. Currently we are at 82% from over 300 bets.
So how much money can you make? This is a subjective question because it depends on how much you stake and what staking strategy you use. 2 common staking strategies are level liability stakes and % of bank stakes.
If you had a starting bank of £1000 and you risked £100 on each bet (i.e. 10% of initial bank) irrespective of whether the previous bet won or lost (i.e. level liability stakes of £100) you would have made over £2200 in 2015.
If you had a starting bank of £1000 and risked 10% of your bank on each bet (i.e. if your bank increases then your stakes increase and vice versa) then in 2015 you would have made over £5100. Of course your stakes would get quite large as your bank increases meaning potential losses get higher.
For level liability stakes 2015 yielded a 224% increase in your bank based of a 10% level liability stake of your initial bank. So if you had a £10K starting bank at the start of 2015 it would be £32,400 by the end of 2015.
How does it work in practice?
Sign up for the free subscription and you will get an email (sometimes more than 1) each day with the days tip(s) and also updates on results. However you only get the 1st 10 tips of each month, after which you will need to wait again until the 1st of the next month to get 10 more tips.
Sign up for the full subscription and you will get every single tip (based on a recurring 30-day period). You will get and email (sometimes more than 1) each day with the days tip(s) and also results updates.
I always state the tip along with kick-off time and the current Betfair odds. Ever single tip I email out is for a lay the draw bet.
Most days you will receive your email before 10am, although on rare occasions it will be a little later.
How many tips per month will you get?
I try to make 2 tips per day, but as I mentioned some days there are only a handful of fixtures. On very rare occasions I cannot make a tip, but expect at least 1 tip per day. I hope to give you around 50 tips per month.
What win rates can you expect?
Based off 2015 results of over 300 tips you can expect an 80%+ win rate. This means at least 4 winning tips to every losing tip. This does not mean 4 wins then a loss repeated. It could mean 10 wins in a row then 2 losses in a row, or is could be any combination of wins and losses. But over a long period it should average out at an 80%+ win rate.
However, while I am confident and my selection process remains unchanged it is impossible to guarantee 100% that things will go perfectly to plan. So always bear this in mind when betting or following other peoples tips.
If you have not done so you should definitely sign up for the free subscription, you literally have nothing to lose and it means you will be able to validate all my tips.
If you are ready and want every single tip then go ahead and sign up for the full subscription.