I have been selecting one (sometimes two) football matches every day since February 24th 2015, and to date I have made 253 selections.
I always choose a match that I think will not end in a draw, so my bet is a lay the draw bet. Normally this bet has lay odds of around 4, sometimes slightly more and sometimes slightly less.
If I simply did level (liability) stakes (or 1 point [1pt] stakes if you like) and tracked the results and profits I would have this:
This is a win rate of 83% and a return on investment (ROI) of 9%. Not bad going at all, but could it be better? Could I squeeze more profit out of this set of results?
Side note about staking…
For those who do not know, pts (points) are a standard way of presenting betting results (profits/losses). A pt can be any amount you want it to be and it is totally up to your betting bank and preferences. So, you could decide that you are happy assigning £10 to a 1pt, this means every point is worth £10. So for the results above you would be £220.40 in profit if you had place a lay the draw bet on each selection.
If you are willing to up the value of a pt to £100 then you’d risk £100 on each bet, but of course your profits would be higher. In this case you’d be £2204 in profit.
271% increase in profit – REALLY! – Is that even possible?
The plot below is a live plot of profits with level 1pt stakes. If I place a 1pt bet on every selection since 24th Feb 2015 the results would look like this:
There are ups and there are downs, but overall the trend is positive.
Now look at the plot below, this plot uses the exact same selections but as you can see the results are staggeringly better:
So what did I do to get this significantly higher profit?
Did I chase after loses with increased stakes? – NO!
Did I randomly increase stakes to get lucky wins? – NO!
Did I analyse the historical data to find winning trends? – YES!
Did I use a strategic and consistent staking strategy? – YES!
I call it the MAXIMIZER.
Simply I looked at the selections as an accumulator. Those familiar with accumulators know that you bet on a series of games in a row and if all results are winners you can win a lot of money.
How accumulators work
Accumulators work by multiplying together the odds of the individual games, giving you much higher odds compared to the individual bets alone.
Lets say we have a 4 game accumulator and we are backing a certain team to win. The win odds of the 4 games are (in decimals): Game#1 = 2, Game#2 = 3, Game#3 = 3 and Game#4 = 4 respectively.
Lets assume all games win, so if we bet £1 per game then the profit from Game#1 = (odds-1)*stake = (2-1)*1 = £1 profit. Game#2 = (3-1)*1 = £2, Game#3 = £2, and Game#4 = £3 profit.
So over the 4 games we have staked £4 in total and made £8 profit.
Lets look at the accumulator: When we multiply the odds together of all 4 games we get a new odds of 72 (2*3*3*4 = 72).
So if we use the same total stake of £4 as we did across all individual bets we get a new accumulator profit of (72-1)*4 = £284
So for the exact same stake we win £276 more, or as a percentage increase we make a = 3450% increase in profits by running an accumulator on the exact same selections.
However, we need all games to win, which at those odds is not very likely. At odds of above 2 we are essentially betting on the non-favourite team to win. But you get the idea of accumulators and see how they ramp up the potential profits over a run of games.
Back to the MAXIMIZER…
What the MAXIMIZER does is reinvest the profit of the previous bet into the next bet. We do this again and again as the winning run continues. This is basically a manual way of doing an accumulator. If we knew all games in advance and the fact that all previous games would be winners we could place a 1pt stake at the very beginning and then wait 9 days until all games had been played.
However, unfortunately this is not the case and we make our selection each day and not in advance, so we cannot choose 9 games for our accumulator on day 1. Also, we only carry on our current accumulator if the previous bet won, so we could not predict the run of games anyway and we need to do it manually one game at a time.
How to manually calculate an accumulator
Bet#1 at odds of 2, Bet#2 at odds of 3, Bet#3 at odds of 3, Bet#4 at odds of 4. £1 stakes.
Bet#1 profit = (2-1)*£1 = £1
Bet#2 stake = £1 (original stake) + £1 profit from previous bet = £2. Profit = (3-1)*£2 = £4 (total profit = Bet#2 + Bet#1 = £4 + £1 = £5)
Bet#3 stake = £1 (original stake) + £5 profit from previous bets = £6. Profit = (3-1)*£6 = £12 (total profit = Bet#3 + Bet#2 + Bet#1 = £12 + £4 + £1 = £17)
Bet#4 stake = £1 (original stake) + £17 profit from previous bets = £18. Profit = (4-1)*£18 = £54 (total profit = Bet#4 + Bet#3 + Bet#2 + Bet#1 = £54 + £12 + £4 + £1 = £71)
So there you go, we got to £71 profit from a £1 accumulator that we calculated manually game by game. This is the exact same method used in the MAXIMIZER staking strategy that increases our profits by 271%.
Lay the draw odds
Because we are working with lay odds things are a little different. If we have lay odds of 4 for a £1 stake the profit is not (4-1)*1 but instead 1/((4-1)*1) = £0.33. So we are risking £1 to make just £0.33. The reason the returns are small is because the chances of the game ending in a draw are relatively small.
However, if we choose the games carefully we can increase our chances and thus even with small returns we can make money. This is exactly what I have done here with Sportstrading.com. Remember these are the results of laying the draw over the last 253 selections:
So for £1 stakes (liability – i.e. would lose £1 if the game ends in a draw) you’d be £22.04 in profit.
OK, lets get to it. The MAXIMIZER…
We do a 9 game manual accumulator. Yes that’s right, 9 games…
Instead of betting £1 and making a £0.33 profit, a 9 game run of wins stacked together as an accumulator would net us around £10 or £11. That’s massive!
Look at it like this. If you risked £1 on each of the 9 games (i.e. you placed a normal single bet) you would stake a total of £9 and make a profit of £3 overall. Assuming lay odds of 4 and all bets were winners.
If we did the 9 game MAXIMIZER (i.e. manual 9 game accumulator) and risked the same £9 we did with the 9 single bets we’d get a profit back of £110.86.
THAT’S AN INCREASE PROFIT OF 3595%
*OK, lets be honest though. We do not make 3595% more profit on our selections because we do not win every single 9 game accumulator we place.
9 wins in a row… Come off it, how often will that happen!
Actually it happens relatively often based off the analysis of our last 253 selections. We have had 12 runs of 9 wins, which is around 5% of the time.
Hang on… 5%, that’s not very high.
You’re right 5% isn’t very high, but what we need to remember is we do not place a single bet every single time, we instead bet on runs of selections up to a maximum of 9 games (which is when we collect our winnings and start again). So taking this into account we only actually make a total of 55 accumulator bets over this data range and have a win rate of 23%.
Now that looks better 🙂
Simplifying the MAXIMISER
If we look to re-purpose the profits as we run through our 9 game accumulator it can become a little confusing calculating exactly how much we need to stake each time. As odds can vary so too can profits and thus stakes. To make life easier we can use the staking strategy below to run the MAXIMIZER.
Bet#1 – Stake = 1pt
Bet#2 – Stake = 1.3pts
Bet#3 – Stake = 1.7pts
Bet#4 – Stake = 2.3pts
Bet#5 – Stake = 3pts
Bet#6 – Stake = 4pts
Bet#7 – Stake = 5pts
Bet#8 – Stake = 7pts
Bet#9 – Stake = 9pts
These stakes have been carefully calculated to give you equivalent profits as if you were calculating them using real profits.
Remember you only continue with the betting strategy if the last game is a winner. If a selection loses at any point during this accumulator then you start again at Bet#1.
Also, once you reach Bet#9 and it wins you pocket the profit (which will be approximately £10 or £11pts) and start fresh again at Bet#1.
Sometimes there are bad times…
Of course there are times when it takes a while to get a 9 game winning run. To date the longest we’ve had to wait is 41 selections to get a winning 9 in a row MAXIMIZER. But remember we did not risk 41pts during this time because we bet on accumulators not single games. This 41 games consisted of a several shorter winning runs that when broken down look like this:
1 x 3 wins in a row, 2 x 4 wins in a row, 1 x 6 wins in a row, and of course our 9 wins in a row. These runs themselves count for 26 selections.
During this 41 game run without a 9 game winning streak there were 10 losing bets, meaning we risked 10pts. A 9 game winning run generally nets us around 11pts profit (this varies depending on individual game odds), so even with this long wait we still end up in the green 🙂
See the bigger picture – It’s easy to make snap decisions. Maybe there are a few losing selections and things aren’t looking great. This happens with betting and if anyone says they win 100% of the time they are lairs. It’s as simple as that.
However, when we look at the bigger picture and analyse results over a longer period of time then conclusions can be drawn. There will be winning runs and there will be losing runs, that’s just a fact of life. But look at the trends over time and you can make predictions on how things will pan out if you just give it time.
In fact, look at the two plots below. If you want higher strike rates and quicker (but smaller) profits choose betting strategy #1 and place a lay the draw bet on every single selection with level stakes (or liabilities).
If you want higher profits and are willing to wait a bit longer for them then choose the MAXIMIZER staking strategy.
Level staking (1pt liabilities):
MAXIMIZER staking (i.e. 9 game manual accumulators):
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